Here’s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee used in their business cycle chronology:
March Employment Indicators for Nonfarm Payroll
The employment surprise in context.
Presidential Election: Polls vs. Prediction Markets
From Real Clear Politics and PredictIt, today:
Some Wisconsin Macro Indicators through February (and Thoughts on the Wisconsin GOP Imagined Recession that Wasn’t)
Coincident index for February out today.
2024 Lampman Memorial Lecture: Susan Dynarski
Guest Contribution: “The Size of Major Currency Zones and Their Determinants”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written Hiro Ito (Portland State University). This web post was posted in RIETI’s columns series.
A Really Very Long Series on the Real Rate
With implications for growth and demographic influences. From Rogoff, Rossi, and Schmelzing (AER, 2024):
2023Q4 GDP Advances in All 50 States; Real Personal Income Declines in 5
From BEA:
An Event Study: News and Trump Media and Technology Group, 4/1/2024
The efficient markets hypothesis indicates that new information should induce a revision to the present discounted value of future dividends, and hence a change in the market value. Apparently news came today.
Explaining the 2022-23 Disinflation Out-of-Sample
In tomorrow’s lecture on the Phillips Curve and the recent inflation surge for Econ 442, I ask whether a modifed Blanchard-Cerutti-Summers (2015) Phillips Curve specification can predict the disinflation. Answer: Yes.