Survey results are out, for responses as of 12/4. FT article here.
Is Economic Activity Really a Lot Lower than It Seems?
Lavorgna (SMBC Nikko) and Millar (Barclays) say look to GDI for a better estimate of economic activity. Both argue that GDI might better signal an incipient recession (USAToday):
Business Cycle Indicators including Monthly GDP
Monthly GDP, as estimated by SPGMI (formerly IHS Markit/Macroeconomic Advisers) drops 0.5% m/m (-6.3% annualized!)
Guest Contribution: “Long-term yields, the term premium and US monetary policy”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Kevin Pallara, Luca Rossi, and Fabrizio Venditti of the Bank of Italy. The views presented in this note represent those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy or the ESCB.
The Foreign Born Labor Force
and wages in food processing:
Russia Invasion Skeptics on the Eve of the War
Good to remember, as we come up to Russian expanded invasion +2 years. Reader JohnH (February 16th, less than a week before the “Special Military Operation”‘s commencement, ridiculing the thought that Russia was embark on further aggression:
Year-on-Year PCE Price Inflation and Some Trend Measures
Instantaneous, instantaneous core, and trimmed mean m/m.
A Decomposition of Per Unit Price Inflation in Nonfinancial Corporate Sector, through 2023Q3
For nonfinancial corporate business sector, using price per unit real gross value added.
Business Cycle Indicators as of End-November
On the last day of the month, we see m/m personal income and consumption coming out at consensus. Here’s the picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC (of which personal income ex transfers and employment are key), along with SPGMI’s monthly GDP.
Sentiment down 46%, Confidence down 25% Relative to Pandemic Eve
And sentiment down 21% relative to Biden’s start, confidence up 13%.