Technically, the Fed targets the PCE deflator, but many use the core PCE as a proxy. I show what the data indicate, including the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast as of 3/14 for February.
X-Files, 2024 Edition
On mainstream economists hiding information regarding the BEA’s development of distributional national accounts, reader John Hofer wrote in January of 2024:
“Grocery Prices Have Soared. That’s Spoiling Biden’s Economic Pitch”
That’s the title of an article in Bloomberg today.
Republicans/Lean-Republicans and the Biden Effect on Economic Sentiment
Here’s a plot to economic sentiment as recorded by the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, by political affiliation:
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-March 2024
Industrial production near consensus, while manufacturing surprises on upside (+0.8% vs. +0.3% m/m). Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with SPGMI’s monthly GDP (formerly from Macroeconomic Advisers and IHS-Markit).
“Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say”
That’s the title of an article by S. Ganguly for Reuters.
Nearly two-thirds of strategists in a March 6-12 Reuters poll of bond market experts, 22 of 34, said the yield curve’s predictive power is not what it once was.
Russian Growth Slows
From BOFIT today (translated by Google):
Dot Plot vs. Market Expectations
For Econ 442 “Macroeconomic Policy”. A question was raised today regarding whether one could distinguish between the market’s expectations and the Fed’s, regarding the path of Fed funds rates. The short answer is yes, under certain assumptions.
Alternative Measures of NFP
Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark indicates NFP employment is on lower trajectory than indicated by the CES measure, by about 600 thousands. How does this change the picture?
Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVII (updated, with Divisia MZM added)
Follow up to Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVI. With data up to 2023Q4, the answer remains “no”.