Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
Deflation in China (Headline), Disinflation in Core Inflation
Stats reported yesterday:
Forecasts and Nowcasts
CBO has released its Budget and Economic Outlook, with projections for GDP (based on data from early December). This is their GDP projection based on current law, compared to other forecasts (IMF, WSJ survey mean), and today’s GDPNow.
Minutes of Work per Gallon of Gasoline, January 2024: 6.2
Divide the price of gasoline by average hourly earnings of private sector production and nonsupervisory workers:
Once and For All: The “Recession” of 2022H1
Using the Sahm rule:
ZeroHedge Goes Adaptive Expectations
Imagine my surprise when I see a statement “rates are now barely positive according to all official inflation and rate data” in an article titled “Will the Fed Elect Biden?” and the accompanying graph:
Debt Projections Pre- and Post- Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (of 2017)
CBO projections of debt, normalized by GDP and potential GDP, from before December passage/signing (CBO June 2017) and after (April 2018).
Under What Administrations Does the Debt-to-GDP Start Rising?
Pretty clear to me:
One of the Three is Not Like the Others: The Partisan Divide and Economic Sentiment
Here’s the U.Michigan sentiment indices for three partisan groupings, vs. the SF Fed News Sentiment index.
Recession in 2022?
From reader JohnH in September 2022, who now states he “was not cheering a recession in mid-2022”.