Data from 2023Q2 post-revision, and Census construction numbers:
Quantity Theory and (Broad) Money Demand in Normal and Abnormal Times
Business Cycle Indicators at October’s Start
With monthly GDP reported today, we have the following picture of the economy.
Policy Uncertainty over the Last Forty Years (Again)
It (still) seems a lot less uncertain since 2021M01, even without an ad hoc measure for the pandemic.
GDP and Nowcasts: Continued Growth in Q3
As of today:
Business Cycle Indicators, Pre- and Post-Comprehensive Revision
The BEA comprehensive revisions combined with August data changes the business cycle picture somewhat. The downturn in personal income ex-transfers and manufacturing and trade industry sales in 2022H1 look a lot bigger.
August Consumption, Income, Deflators, post-Comprehensive Revision
Courtesy of Paweł Skrzypczyński:
Guest Contribution: “Underlying Inflation and Asymmetric Risks”
Today we present a guest post written by Danilo Leiva-León (European Central Bank), Hervé Le Bihan (Bank of France) and Matías Pacce (Bank of Spain). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Bank of France, Bank of Spain, European Central Bank or the Eurosystem.
Recession Forecasts with and without Debt-Service Ratio
In a previous post, I presented forecasts of recession based on probit models using term spread plus short rate, and term spread plus short rate, foreign term spread and debt service ratio. The latter only went of to 2024M03 since BIS only published debt service ratio data up to March. I have extrapolated the ratio to June, so as to obtain the following forecasts.
The Minimum Wage Apocalypse on Elliott Bay (or Not)
Remember those warnings of an economic apocalypse in Seattle as the minimum wage was raised up to $15-16 per hour? Mark J. Perry was at the forefront of this (faulty) thesis. Having to teach Contemporary Public Affairs this semester, I was moved to return to this debate.