And 30 years of turnover data. Currently doing regressions on data on reserve bank holdings, in a project with Jeffrey Frankel and Hiro Ito. In terms of aggregates, we have 50 years of estimates (about 25 years of actual data, and yet fewer years on (selected) individual central bank data)
History, According to Some
In commenting on this post comparing the post-Great Influenza and post-Covid period, Mr. Kopits asserts:
Inflation Nowcasts and Expectations
NY Fed median expected y/y CPI inflation at 3%. Nowcast for core y/y at 3.9%.
Is the Inflation Experience of 2021-23 Like that of Post-Great-Influenza (1918-19)?
Reader Steven Kopits, commenting on inflation now vs. Korean war post:
Are We in Recession? The Sahm Rule Now & 2007
Here’s 2007-08:
Transitory Now vs. 71 Years ago
Follow up on this post from two and a half years ago:
RMB Reserves & Turnover, China GDP Share of World GDP, Avg. Trade Share
Here’s a picture of the RMB’s role as a reserve and vehicle currency, from an ongoing project with Jeffrey Frankel and Hiro Ito, where we examine the determinants of individual central bank reserve holdings.
What’s the Actual Strength of the Labor Market? CPS vs CES vs ADP vs ISM
Some commentators have focused on the sharp declines in civilian employment as well as the ISM services employment diffusion index as signaling greater weakness than suggested by the establishment survey.
The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
NFP growth surprises on the upside (see discussion here), but combined with downward revisions in October and November, we’re just at about the consensus level. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Six Measures of NFP Employment
NFP growth beats Bloomberg consensus by 46K (private NFP by 36K). Looking at several measures of NFP (total, private) suggests continued growth.