Here’re some indicators at the weeky frequency for the real economy.
FT-IGM March Survey – Expectations Post-SVB
Here’s the growth path according to the FT-IGM survey that closed March 16th, about a week after the unfolding of events surrounding SVB.
Mass Shooting Correlates, through March 2023
Estimating through March 29, regressions of mass shooting casualties, and mass shooting events:
A Stryker Velocity Model
A two regime Markov switching model for the log of M2 velocity, 1959-2022, as suggested by Rick Stryker:
Deposits on the Move
Rashad Ahmed brings my attention to the following:
“…we had a debate about whether M2 was mean reverting or not. The data says it is.”
That’s a comment by Steven Kopits.
Guest Contribution: “Fifty Years of Floating”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Weekly Macro Indicators, thru 3/18
Here’re some indicators at the weeky frequency for the real economy. Bloomberg notes that GDPNow (3/16) combined with SEP median of 0.4% growth rate for 2023 implies 3 quarters of negative GDP growth starting in Q2. The latest data below relate to late in Q1.
Stress
St. Louis Financial Stress and Chicago Financial Conditions Indices.
Market Implied Fed Funds Path, Post-FOMC
Up relative to yesterday (or the 19th), as expected given Powell’s statement. However, still way down relative to March 8th.