Here is a picture of recession probabilities from probit regressions on 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr term spreads, in light of Cam Harvey’s updated views.
The Wisconsin Economic Outlook: Downturn Delayed (but Not Erased)
The Wisconsin Department of Revenue’s Economic Outlook May forecast came out yesterday. As the US outlook (from S&P Global Market Insights, formerly Macroeconomic Advisers and IHS Markit) has improved, so too has that of Wisconsin.
Are Imports a Leading or Contemporaneous Indicator of Recession?
Answer: Yes, and (to a lesser extent) Yes.
SIFMA Semiannual Survey – the Outlook for Growth
“2023 GDP growth expected at +0.5% (median forecast, 4Q/4Q); 2024 expected at +1.7%” (SIFMA stands for Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) From the Report.
Why Consumption Has Been Sustained
The permanent income hypothesis in its RatEx-no liquidity constraint version says that consumption will adjust upward fully in response to a windfall. This will mean it will take a while to decumulate the “excess savings” transferred during the pandemic. How much remains? Here’s a guess from Torsten Slok:
The Budget Balance to GDP Ratio: Actual & Cyclically Adjusted
From CBO today:
Forecasts vs. Nowcasts and the Receding Downturn
The pattern of forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters over the past three quarters suggests a receding downturn. Today’s Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for Q2 seems to confirm that no downturn occurred in 2023Q2.
Inflation: A Decomposition to Profits, Unit Costs
For nonfinancial corporate business sector, using price per unit real gross value added.
Business Cycle Indicators, Relative to January 2023
New Deal Democrat suggests normalizing on 2023M01 instead of to 2022M11. Here’re the NBER BCDC indicators, plus monthly GDP, as well as a slew of others, since then.
The Reliability of Employment Measures from CES
Alternate measures of conceptually similar to NFP and private NFP continue to rise.