By simple addition of bets on 50 seats or less for Republicans — at 1030am Eastern Time, from PredictIt:
Real Median Weekly Earnings: CPI vs. Chained CPI
The trend in real median weekly earnings looks different depending on deflator.
Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices
Oil prices are down, and futures are in backwardation. Gasoline prices are also (way) down from June peaks.
Reminder: Using the “Two-Consecutive-Quarter Rule” There Is No 2001 Recession
At least as of now. But at end 2003, there was. But not as of January 2002.
A Measure to Reduce Inflation, Accelerate Potential Growth
Fix this gap:
Messages from the Labor Market Release
The recession is (probably) not here yet (nor was it likely here earlier this year), employment likely continued to grow, and real wages are on average higher than they were before the pandemic. First, key business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC continue uptrend in October, with exception of the civilian employment series based on the household series.
Nowcasting the 2022H1 or 2022H2 Recession
Two of the methodologies discussed in the post on recent nowcasting developments provide insights into the state of the economy.
Business Cycle Indicators at the Beginning of November
and on the eve of the October employment report. With monthly GDP on Tuesday, and consumption and income last week, we have the following picture of some key series followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (NBER BCDC):
Hubbert’s Peak and Technology
What assumptions were made?
On the Eve of November FOMC
Expected economic activity, medium term market based inflation expectations, and risk/uncertainty measures.