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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

The Hit to the Russian Economy, Internally Assessed

From Bloomberg “Russia Privately Warns of Deep and Prolonged Economic Damage”:

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This entry was posted on September 5, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Weekly Economic Activity thru August 27

New OECD Weekly Tracker index  (Woloszko/OECD) is out. Here’s the resulting picture:

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This entry was posted on September 5, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Whither Sentiment?

Look toward gasoline prices (and a few other things).

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This entry was posted on September 4, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators as of 9/3: On the Upswing Again (If They Were Ever in a Downswing)

In the wake of the employment situation and monthly GDP (IHS Markit) releases:

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This entry was posted on September 3, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Forecasting Real Activity using Cross-Sectoral Stock Market Information”

Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Arthur Stalla Bourdillon, economist at the Banque de France. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Banque de France, Eurosystem or NBER.


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This entry was posted on September 3, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Gauging Recessions with the Jobs-Workers Gap”

Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.


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This entry was posted on September 2, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

“OHCHR Assessment of human rights concerns in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, People’s Republic of China”

From the conclusion to the Report:

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This entry was posted on September 2, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Four Pictures of the Labor Market in August

Employment (NFP, private NFP) exceeds consensus slightly The recession is not here as far as I can tell. Nor does it seem to have been here in H1.

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This entry was posted on September 2, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

The “… Recession of H1 2022”? (Part III)

Some people think we’re in a recession now, some think it’s in the past (we’re currently in H2 2022). With new incoming weekly, monthly and quarterly data, should we still think those views are plausible [follow up on this post]?

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This entry was posted on September 1, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

How Do We Know this Photo Was Actually Taken at Mar-a-Lago?

(Rejoinder to all the conspiracy nuts who will say this photo was taken elsewhere)

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This entry was posted on September 1, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

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  • Trade Policy Uncertainty before July 9
  • Manufacturing Employment, Hours Down
  • Central Bank Gold Holdings

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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