A week and a half ago, Kevin Drum noted earlier the disjuncture between job creation as measured by the household survey (civilian employment) and establishment survey (nonfarm payroll employment). My conclusion was that the empirical evidence suggested putting most — if not all — weight on the establishment survey. Now, Torsten Slok compares the declines in response rates in the two surveys. The comparison further buttresses the case for using the establishment series.
Month-on-Month Headline, Core inflation Down
Below consensus, headline m/m at 0.1% vs. 0.3% Bloomberg consensus, and core 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus. Headline and core m/m annualized inflation in Figures 1 and 2, along with chained, sticky price, trimmed, and PCE.
“Do foreign yield curves predict US recessions and GDP growth?”
Our short answer: yes.
Some Empirical Definitions of Recession, around the World: An Incomplete List
For those who don’t want to use a simple two-consecutive-quarter rule (which would declare the 2001 recession a non-recession).
So You Think We Were In a Recession in 2022H1? – Last Observations for 2022
At least somebody still believes that as of a couple weeks ago.
GDP Nowcasts as of 12/10: Growth in Q4
We have Q4 nowcasts and tracking estimates as of 12/9, and implied Q4 from Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI.
Deceleration (through 12/3)!
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI, through 12/3; and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 11/26.
FT-IGM December Macroeconomists Survey – Fed Policy, Impending Recession (and More)
10yr-3mo Term Spread and Recession, Down Under
Here’s a picture of the 10yr-3mo term spread in Australia:
Term Spreads and Recessions, Country by Country Evidence – a Very Incomplete Review
Dr. Rosser asks what is the evidence for term spreads predicting recessions, with special reference to Japan. Here is my partial answer: