From Bloomberg “Russia Privately Warns of Deep and Prolonged Economic Damage”:
Weekly Economic Activity thru August 27
New OECD Weekly Tracker index (Woloszko/OECD) is out. Here’s the resulting picture:
Whither Sentiment?
Look toward gasoline prices (and a few other things).
Business Cycle Indicators as of 9/3: On the Upswing Again (If They Were Ever in a Downswing)
In the wake of the employment situation and monthly GDP (IHS Markit) releases:
Guest Contribution: “Forecasting Real Activity using Cross-Sectoral Stock Market Information”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Arthur Stalla Bourdillon, economist at the Banque de France. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Banque de France, Eurosystem or NBER.
Guest Contribution: “Gauging Recessions with the Jobs-Workers Gap”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
“OHCHR Assessment of human rights concerns in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, People’s Republic of China”
From the conclusion to the Report:
Four Pictures of the Labor Market in August
Employment (NFP, private NFP) exceeds consensus slightly The recession is not here as far as I can tell. Nor does it seem to have been here in H1.
The “… Recession of H1 2022”? (Part III)
How Do We Know this Photo Was Actually Taken at Mar-a-Lago?
(Rejoinder to all the conspiracy nuts who will say this photo was taken elsewhere)