Atlanta Fed nowcast at 3.4% q/q SAAR:
Term Spreads around the World, as of December 6, 2022
Here is a snapshot of four key term spreads spreads through November (an examination prompted by a Deutsche Bank missive title “The Looming Recession” which dropped into my inbox today).
Real Wages during and Post-Pandemic
While recent accounts have focused on the erosion of real wages with high inflation, what is true is that average real wages in the private sector, and amongs the lowest paid segment, leisure and hospitality workers, has risen since 2020M02.
Is the Establishment Series Overestimating NFP Employment?
That is the proposition forwarded by Kevin Drum at Jabberwocking. Verbatim:
So: have we really created 2.5 million new jobs since March? I’m not sure I believe that.
The graph he posted summarizes his argument succinctly:
Short Horizon Inflation Expectations – Survey and Market Based
One year horizon:
GS “Recession Watch” Odds at 35%
From M. Abecasis/GS today:
Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
NFP employment increase of 263K surprises on upside (vs. Bloomberg consensus of 200K). This is the resulting picture for some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Guest Contribution: “Let the WTO Referee Carbon Border Tariffs”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Month-on-Month Inflation Seems to Have Peaked
That’s the message from PCE deflators today.
Business Cycle Indicators at the Beginning of December 2022
With the release of personal consumption and income for October, we have the following picture of key series followed by the NBER BCDC (along with monthly GDP from IHS Markit, formerly from Macroeconomic Advisers).