CFNAI edition – from Chicago Fed today:
Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in July
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was +0.27 in July, up from –0.25 in June.
CEPR: “Macroeconomic Policies for Wartime Ukraine”
An e-book with contributions by Torbjörn Becker, Barry Eichengreen, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Sergei Guriev, Simon Johnson, Tymofiy Mylovanov, Maurice Obstfeld, Kenneth Rogoff, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro.
Military Conflict and Economic Warfare, China-Taiwan
Some commentators have worried about imminent military hostilities between China and Taiwan (and hence the United States, almost assuredly). Here’s some reasons to think it’s not quite happening yet — at least the military part. The economic aspects — we’ll have to wait and see.
“The Impacts of Crises on the Trilemma Configurations”
Excepting international reserves, trilemma configurations were durable through the global financial crisis. From Aizenman, Chinn and Ito (forthcoming Open Economies Review, 2022) (also NBER WP No. 30406).
Bank Loan Growth – Latest Available
From Torsten Slok’s “Recession Watch” chartpack today:
Glick, Leduc, Pepper: “Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?”
That’s the title of a recent SF Fed Economic Letter, by Reuven Glick, Sylvain Leduc, and Mollie Pepper.
Households are currently expecting inflation to run high in the short run but to remain muted over the more distant future. Given this divergence, what role do short-run and long-run household inflation expectations play in determining what workers expect for future wages? Data show that wage inflation is sensitive to movements in household short-run inflation expectations but not to those over longer horizons. This points to an upside risk for inflation, as workers negotiate higher wages that businesses could pass on to consumers by raising prices.
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of Mid-August?
Weekly and daily readings through 8/13:
Retail Sales, Inflation Adjusted
Beating consensus for July.
Looking Back at Q2 – Imminent Upward Revisions?
IHS Markit moves 2022Q2 tracking from -0.3% to -0.2% SAAR today. Goldman Sachs moves from the advance official of -0.9% to -0.4% SAAR. Continue reading
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-August 2022
Industrial production and manufacturing production exceeded consensus (0.6% vs. 0.3%, 0.7% vs. 0.2%, respectively) yielding the following graph of key indicators.