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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Covid-19 Forecasts, One Year Ago and Today

One year ago (7/29):

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This entry was posted on July 24, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

IHME Projections for Deaths per capita In One Month, Two Months

IHME updated its forecasts yesterday. First the time series for total excess deaths:

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This entry was posted on July 24, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Danger: When a Classical Scholar(/Ideologue) Discusses Inflation

Victor Davis Hanson, writing in a data-free commentary published by the Independent Institute : NOTE as of 7/26, the Independent Institute’s version of the article has disappeared; I add here another copy of the article, at some site called “American Greatness“. 10/26/2021, MDC.

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This entry was posted on July 23, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

“Rising Rents Threaten to Prop Up Inflation”

That’s the title of a NYT article today.

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This entry was posted on July 22, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Missouri, Delta Variant and Economic Activity (So Far)

Three alarming graphs regarding the Covid spread in Missouri (from 7/19 WaPo), and some economic indicators:

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This entry was posted on July 22, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin Economic Activity in June

The Philadelphia Fed released the coincident index for June today. Wisconsin has re-attained economic activity levels recorded at the NBER peak of February 2020.

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This entry was posted on July 21, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Republicans Aim to Raise Economic Policy Uncertainty… Again

From CNN, “McConnell says GOP will not vote to raise debt ceiling, setting up clash in Congress”:

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This entry was posted on July 21, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Term Spread and Inflation Breakeven Declining, and Real Rates Still Low

All suggesting slowing growth…maybe

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This entry was posted on July 21, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

The Pace of Employment Growth in States Cutting UI Benefits

Is slower than for those that didn’t. From Steve Englander/Standard Charter Bank:

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This entry was posted on July 20, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation Now and 70 Years Ago

Inflation surged at the beginning of the Korean War, with the economy at full employment. Here’s CPI and PPI inflation then and now…

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This entry was posted on July 20, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Policy Uncertainty Spikes
  • Nowcasts and Tracking of “Core GDP”
  • Gold: The Challenger to Dollar Reserves?
  • CEA Unleashed!
  • “That Drop in Consumer Income in May Was a False Recession Alarm”

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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