From NBER today:
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains a chronology of the peaks and troughs of US business cycles. The committee has determined that a trough in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in April 2020. The previous peak in economic activity occurred in February 2020. The recession lasted two months, which makes it the shortest US recession on record.
I keep on seeing organizations like the Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce Association cry about worker shortages, as here:
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Calla Wiemer (President, American Committee on Asian Economic Studies).
From WSJ surveys:
For those interested in the RMB, here’s my book review:
Household forecasts are about 2 percentage points above those of economists.
An argument increasingly being made is that inflation is being built into wage demands in a context of really tight labor markets, and this would induce a wage-price spiral. This outcome is plausible, but I think it’s useful to compare wages against CPI to see if wages are really abnormally high, and are starting to rise in tandem with inflation. [text corrected 8/13]
Industrial production was released yesterday, and retail sales today.
Does Wisconsin’s fortunes — as a manufacturing heavy state — depend on what happens in the rest-of-the world? The answer is, partly, yes…
A lot of coverage of how the NY Fed’s survey of consumers’ inflation expectations had moved substantially (e.g. NYT). A couple of observations: (1) household/consumer based expectations are upwardly biased; (2) the high inflation is expected to be temporary, in the sense that the expected inflation in the next 12 months is higher than 12 month inflation ending in June 2024.