ADP released their estimates for March today: up 517 thousand. Bloomberg consensus is for +575 thousand.
Figure 1: Month-on-month growth rate (not annualized, in log terms) in private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS October release (black), Bloomberg consensus for March as of 3/31 (teal square), ADP March release (red). Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
I’m talking about inflation expectations in my macro course, so wanted to show what different measures predicted for the next year.
at CBO, is described in detail in this working paper. Also, here is a comparison of implied output gaps from various organizations, through 2016.
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
From marinetraffic.com (accessed 3/26/21, 8:16pm Central):
Some additional details: S&P Global/Platts, WSJ, NikkeiAsia.
If you’re an economic policy analyst, you might get the feeling that the crazy-high uncertainty surrounding policy has abated. You might even feel that more profoundly if your portfolio includes trade policy…
BEA has just released state level GDP for 2020Q4. Wisconsin is down slightly more than the US overall (3% vs 2.4%) relative to NBER peak at 2019Q4, and for 2020 overall at approximately the level forecasted in November. Manufacturing had recovered to prior peak, while accommodation and food services were down 27.6% (all percentages calculated as log differences).
Reader EConned writes about Judy Shelton:
One can disagree with Shelton’s policy stances, public statements, writings, etc… but there’s no doubt she’s an eminent economist. Debating the substance of her views is great but I certainly don’t see the need to just “hate on her” I. The fashion of this comment (and, honestly, the OP). There are Americans including policy makers of past, present, and future who respect her opinions… for better or for worse.
Now, I know “eminence” is in the eye of the beholder. As an academic economist, I would be tempted to go to “Google Scholar” or the successor to the Social Sciences Citation Index to make my own judgment.
Personally, I don’t know Dr. Shelton, have never met Dr. Shelton, nor corresponded with Dr. Shelton. However, I find her views on government statistics strange, her views on currency manipulation confusing, and her malleability with respect to the conduct of monetary policy troubling.
If you’d thought the recovery was in full swing, think again. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment has stabilized at a level down 5.6% relative to NBER peak in 2020M02 (in log terms), vs. 6.4% for the nation overall (according to figures released by DWD today).
Popping into my email inbox today, a press release titled:
Renowned Economist and Author Judy L. Shelton Joins the Independent Institute as Senior Fellow