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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Forward Looking Components of Economic Activity

Nonresidential fixed investment has been declining for three quarters, while equipment has been declining for two quarters. If Atlanta Fed nowcasts prove right for the current quarter, then as of 2020Q1, equipment investment will have fallen for three quarters (while nonresidential will still be below peak).

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This entry was posted on March 4, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators as of 3/1/2020

Business cycle indicators that NBER examines (along with others):

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This entry was posted on March 1, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

High Frequency Economic Indicators for China

 

Source: Hatzius/Struyven, “A viral global slowdown,” Top of Mind, Goldman Sachs, Feb 28, 2020.

Goldman Sachs now forecasts (nowcasts) -6% q/q AR growth in Q1, down from -0.5%.

This entry was posted on February 28, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “The predictive power of equilibrium exchange rates”

Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Michele Ca’ Zorzi (ECB), Adam Cap (BIS), Andrej Mijakovic (European University Institute) and Michal Rubaszek (SGH Warsaw School of Economics). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the institutions they are affiliated with.


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This entry was posted on February 28, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Will the Coronavirus Lead to Global Recession?”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate  February 24th.

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This entry was posted on February 27, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Trend Deviation in Freight Transportation

Freight movement as measured by the BTS Freight Transportation Services index is down, relative to trend.

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This entry was posted on February 26, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Recession Probability for Term Spread thru 2/24

If the last few days of February is like the rest, then recession probabilities are up. Using a plain-vanilla probit model of recession based on the10yr-3mo spread, the following recession probabilities are obtained.

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This entry was posted on February 24, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

10yr-3mo Treasury Spread and TIPS 10yr

Figure 1 shows both of these at monthly frequency, with February data through 2/21.

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This entry was posted on February 23, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Remembering Representative Ryan’s Legacy

Brian Riedl writes:

I’ve never understood the intense hatred of Paul Ryan. Agree or disagree on policies — he treated people well (even when they didn’t return the favor), avoided demagoguery, good family man, no scandals. Thats what we should want out of elected officials.

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This entry was posted on February 21, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Explaining the Administration’s Economic Forecast

The Economic Report of the President, 2020 is out as of today. Chapter 9 presents the underpinnings for the seemingly implausible GDP forecast presented in the Budget last week — a forecast that’s a full percentage point faster than CBO’s.

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This entry was posted on February 20, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Global Imbalances as Global Recession EWS?
  • Policy Uncertainty Watch
  • Taking Economic Policy Uncertainty Seriously
  • Nowcasted Equipment Investment Decelerates
  • Measured Trade Policy Uncertainty Spikes

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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