In today’s Bloomberg:
Wall Street Haruspicy Watch
Do Tariffs Matter? Soybean Edition
A year ago, there was some debate (e.g., S. Kopits) whether tariffs on US soybeans would have any impact on US soybean exports — that is since soybeans were highly substitutable, US soybean exports would be redistributed w/o an impact on prices.
From Deutsche Bank today:
10yr-3mo Spread Barely Budges as 10yr-2yr Approaches Zero
This despite Trump’s temporary delay on additional China tariffs.
Teaching Begins Early This Fall: News, Efficient Markets Hypothesis, Asset Prices
Figure 1: September 2019 corn futures, accessed 8/13/2019. Source: Barchart.com.
Term Spreads Plumb New Depths as Long Yield Drops
A picture is worth a thousand words.
Guest Contribution: “RMB reaches 7.0; US names China a manipulator”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on August 9th.
On the Eve of Recession? Five Graphs from Two Courses
I get to teach Public Affairs 854, “Macroeconomic Policy and International Financial Regulation” and Economics 435 “The Financial System” this fall. There’s a cosmic confluence this year, in terms of the subject:
Undervaluation, Misalignment, and China in the 2019 IMF External Sector Report
Donald Trump’s pronouncements can typically be taken as contra-indicators. In other words, what he says is invariably wrong. So, you gotta wonder on China…
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SitRep from the Midwest
No end to “the blip“. From today’s Des Moines Register: