Ironman at Political Calculations asserts it does. Unfortunately, he makes a mistake in calculating Kansas GDP ex.-agriculture by simply subtracting chained agriculture from chained state GDP (discussed in the addendum to this post). Here in Figure 1 is properly calculated GDP ex.-agriculture plotted against a drought index (lower values is a more severe drought).
Currency Casus Belli?
Is a current undervaluation of the Chinese yuan plausible?
Recession Watch, August 2016
The implications of the tradables sector, the dollar, and Fed policy.
Observational Equivalence? Conspiracy Theory Kooks vs. Statistical Incompetence
Remember this Political Calculations blogpost asserting that BEA, by virtue of releasing statewide GDP figures, was unwittingly telegraphing a massive downward revision in GDP come the July 29th benchmark revision? That development failed to occur. In fact GDP was on average revised up release [pdf].
Brexit Fallout: Consumer Confidence Collapses
From GkF on Friday:
GfK’s long-running monthly Consumer Confidence Index dropped 11 points in July (since the June interviews conducted before the Referendum) from -1 to -12. The survey dates back to 1974 and July sees the sharpest month-by-month drop for more than 26 years (March 1990). This is also a further 3-point drop from the -9 recorded by the Brexit Special in early July. All five measures used to calculate the Index saw decreases this month.
Update, 8/2 1:45am Pacific: And here is measured policy uncertainty in the UK.
Figure 1: UK Policy Uncertainty. Source: policyuncertainty.com accessed 8/2.
Anemic economic growth
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.2% annual rate in the second quarter. Not good news.
Continue reading
Never Were Truer Words Said
“I am the king of debt. I do love debt. I love debt.” -Donald J. Trump, May 2016 (WaPo)
Guest Contribution: “Trump Jr.’s Pants-on-Fire Allegation of Manipulated Jobs Numbers”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
UK Yield Curve Flattening: “Nothing to do with Brexit”?
Tracking US GDP ex.-Government
Political Calculations makes some more ([1], [2]) elementary errors with chained quantities, to arrive at incorrect — and misleading — measures of real GDP excluding government consumption and investment.