So Much for International Monetary Cooperation

From Ted Truman (former director of Int’l Finance at the Fed, former Ass’t Sec. Treasury), at Peterson Institute’s Real Time Economic Issues Watch, yesterday:

The impending congressional adoption this week of a $1.1 trillion appropriations bill has been hailed far and wide as a victory for sorely needed bipartisanship cooperation in Washington. Left out of the legislation, however, was an important but little understood and underappreciated proposal to implement reform at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). …

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Guest Contribution: “Understanding the Potential Effects of QE on Gross Financial Flows to Developing Countries”

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jamus Jerome Lim (World Bank), Sanket Mohapatra (World Bank), and Marc Stocker (World Bank). The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this article are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.

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Per Capita Income: Wisconsin vs. Minnesota

From Davey, “Twinned Cities Now Following Different Paths,” NY Times today:

“It’s staggering, really, like night and day,” said Lawrence R. Jacobs, a political scientist at the University of Minnesota. “You’ve got two states with the same history, the same culture, the same people — it’s kind of like they’re cousins. And now they’re looking across the border and seeing one world, then seeing something else entirely on the other side.”

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European monetary policy and the yield curve

From the Economist last week:

Since the financial crisis the European Central Bank (ECB) has ploughed a solitary course, reflecting its unique status as a monetary authority without a state. While other big central banks, notably America’s Federal Reserve, adopted quantitative easing– buying government bonds by creating money– to stimulate recovery, the ECB relied mainly on lowering interest rates and providing unlimited liquidity to banks on longer terms and against worse collateral. But as the Fed phases out its asset-buying programme in 2014, it may be the ECB’s turn to become unorthodox.

By one measure, the ECB may already be there.

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Predictions for the New Year

From Tim Duy:

Pencil in somewhat stronger growth in 2014. Pencil in a steady reduction in the pace of asset purchases until the program winds down at the end of the year. Pencil in an extended period of low rates. But also recognize that the tide of monetary policy is now receding– albeit ever so slightly– with the Fed’s first step of ending the asset purchase program.

And from the invaluable Bill McBride: Ten questions for 2014.