Politico Magazine asks “should we really be so optimistic about the year ahead?” Mohamed El-Arian (PIMCO), Jared Bernstein (CBPP), Laurence Kotlikoff (Boston U.), Robert Reich (Berkeley), Menzie Chinn (Wisconsin U.) and Jeffry Frieden (Harvard), Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard) and Dean Baker (CEPR) respond.
“For a Few Dollars More: Reserves and Growth in Times of Crises”
That’s the title of a paper coauthored by Matthieu Bussiere (Banque de France), Gong Cheng (Sciences Po), Noemie Lisack (European University Institute) and myself, in which we examine two key questions:
[F]irst, has the accumulation of reserves effectively protected countries during the 2008-09 financial crisis? And second, what explains the pattern of reserve accumulation observed during and after the crisis?
A lack of ethics
David Kocieniewski of the New York Times is guilty of some outrageously bad journalism in the form of a groundless ad hominem attack on the reputation of two professors for the sole purpose of reinforcing the prejudices of his misinformed readers.
The Year in Review, 2013: Fantastical Pseudo Economics
The Shoveling Must Continue
Bill Beach has retired, and the Heritage Foundation no longer “scores” budget plans. Yet there is still so much … stuff … out there to debunk. Without further ado, here are my top ten examples of delusion in 2013.
All quiet on the southern front
After a wild ride in 2011-2012, interest rates have settled down on European sovereign debt. For now.
British Economic Triumphalism in Perspective
Updated, includes summary of an econometric analysis of impact of austerity in the UK
Prime Minister Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne has lauded the recent UK growth numbers as validation for the policy of austerity [1] (recently relaxed, although he doesn’t mention that).
Reason for Optimism?
Despite the best efforts of some policymakers to reduce aggregate demand by way of austerity measures [0], there are glimmers of hope for more rapid growth.
U.S. tight oil production surging
The U.S. Energy Information Administration last week issued an early release of its Annual Energy Outlook 2014, which shows substantially more optimism about near-term U.S. crude oil production compared to the AEO 2013 assessment completed just eight months ago.
Wisconsin Employment in November
Figure 1 shows private employment relative to trend implied by Governor Walker’s pledge of August 2013 to create 250,000 net new jobs; Figure 2 shows employment normalized to January 2011 for Wisconsin, as compared to Minnesota and the Nation.
Phillips Curve Nonlinearities in the Data
Over the period of the Great Moderation, has inflation responded linearly to the output gap?