Japan edition
Inflation and output are up. So too is gross fixed capital investment. The yen is weaker, and the real quantity of net exports is higher.
Presidents and the economy
An interesting new research paper by Princeton Professors Alan Blinder and Mark Watson examines differences in performance of the economy under Democratic versus Republican presidents. The paper begins:
The superiority of economic performance under Democrats rather than Republicans is nearly
ubiquitous; it holds almost regardless of how you define success. By many measures, the
performance gap is startlingly large–so large, in fact, that it strains credulity, given how little
influence over the economy most economists (or the Constitution, for that matter) assign to the
President of the United States.
Fiscal Drag in 2013
From Torsten Slok at Deutsche Bank:
[F]iscal drag in 2013 is 2.4%, ie if GDP growth in 2013 ends up being 1.7% then if we had not had the fiscal drag then GDP growth would instead have been 4.1% (=1.7% + 2.4%). ..
Forward rates and monetary tightening
The Federal Reserve has been trying hard to communicate that it intends to keep short-term interest rates low for quite some time. The market seems to have embraced the message.
Wisconsin Employment: October 2013
Two numbers to remember: 84 thousand and 107 thousand
Jeffrey Frankel: “The Dollar and Its Rivals”
JEC Chair Brady and the Inflation Outlook
From a statement by the Joint Economic Committee Chairman, October 9th, 2013:
I fear that the Federal Reserve through current policies of Quantitative Easing and maintaining extraordinary low interest rates may be providing the fuel for igniting high
inflation.
“Fiscal Policy: Accomplishments, Challenges and Opportunities”
That’s the title of CEA Chair Jason Furman’s presentation at the University of Wisconsin at Madison on Monday. Introduced by UW Chancellor Becky Blank, his discussion covered a wide range of issues. From WisBusiness:
Jason Furman, chairman of Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, said Congress should invest in infrastructure at today’s low borrowing rates, reform the tax code, approve an immigration reform bill projected to cut the deficit and agree on long-term debt reduction, instead of implementing short-term cuts like sequestration that impede economic growth.
Apocalyptic Macro: Inflation Edition
From an opinion piece by Sean Fieler in USAToday:
If easy money delivers what it always has throughout history — growing inflation, growing inequality and growing government — a Republican embrace of sound money will offer America a way back to prosperity and the GOP a way back to a governing majority.
Lower gasoline prices
“U.S. gasoline prices have fallen to their lowest level in nearly 33 months amid a boom in domestic oil drilling”, the Wall Street Journal declared last week. That’s a true statement, but there’s more to the story.