How has the world managed to increase both population and living standards on a finite planet?
Russian ForEx Reserves and Balance of Payments Vulnerabilities
Russian foreign exchange reserves, while large, are declining. Since reserve holdings (or lack thereof) are one of the best predictors of balance of payments/currency crises, it’s worth taking a look at their trajectory. (See Frankel and Saravelos, 2012 for a recent example)
More on Piketty
I continue to agree with Paul Krugman that the Financial Times and Tyler Cowen have picked an unlikely battle with Thomas Piketty in trying to claim that wealth inequality in the United Kingdom has been decreasing rather than increasing over the last 40 years; more on this from Carter Price. As for Piketty’s broader claims of century-long trends (to perceive which the French scholar has to dismiss much of the twentieth century as an anomaly), King Banaian’s summary of some of the details in how Piketty misreported the data are troubling.
The core claim of Piketty’s book is that slower economic growth will lead to a huge increase in the capital/income ratio as a consequence of a relation that Piketty described as the “second fundamental law of capitalism”. I earlier explained why Piketty’s law is complete nonsense. Separately, James Galbraith explains why the first “law” as interpreted and applied by Piketty is also highly problematic.
Many of us believe that relatively recent globalization, rather than Piketty’s broad theories or asserted sweeping historical trends, played an important role in growing income inequality within most major developed countries over the last generation. But it should also be noted that this same globalization has also been the key factor in reducing inequality on a global scale in the sense of profoundly raising the standard of living for billions of residents of developing and emerging economies.
UPDATE: I see that Per Krussel and Tony Smith came out with a paper today elaborating on the points I made on Sunday. Hat tips to Greg Mankiw and Tyler Cowen.
Beware of Unit Roots in Scatterplots
Is there a linear relationship over time between the share of workers affected by the minimum wage and the ratio of the minimum wage and average compensation?
Criticisms of Piketty
There has been much discussion of Thomas Piketty’s new book, Capital in the 21st Century. Some of the criticisms I agree with, and some I do not.
Demographic Incidence of a Wisconsin Minimum Wage Increase
In Wisconsin, the main beneficiaries of a minimum wage increase to $10.10 would be individuals aged 20-29 years, females, and (proportionately), blacks and hispanics. Hence, opposition to a minimum wage increase implies a worse outcome for those groups in the aggregate relative to an elevated-minimum-wage scenario.
Guest Contribution: “Sovereign to Sovereign Capital Flows”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution authored by Laura Alfaro (Harvard), Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (U. Maryland) and Vadym Volosovych (Erasmus University Rotterdam). This post is based on “Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, and Global Imbalances” (2014).
Minnesota vs. Wisconsin, and More
The Philadelphia Fed has just released coincident indicators for state economies. No turnaround for Wisconsin — it continues to lag Minnesota and the Nation.
Will Wisconsin Private Employment Be Revised Down?
Preliminary figures from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which Governor Walker has previously touted as more accurate than the establishment survey [1], indicate a substantial downward revision in Wisconsin private employment.
Cancer and age
There’s no denying that our bodies deteriorate as we age. But here’s one fact in which those in their golden years may take comfort. If you live long enough, your odds of developing certain cancers decline rather than increase as a function of age.