Guest Contribution: “The Fed is Back on the Curve”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Business Cycle Indicators, Incorporating the Employment Release
With the employment release, showing a deceleration in employment growth despite the upside surprise in April’s number, this is the picture of the series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC), plus monthly GDP from S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) formerly Macroeconomic Advisers.
Of Nowcasts and Revisions
Don’t pay too much attention to the headline change in employment.
Mortgage Spreads
Productivity and Costs in Q1
Productivity growth underperforms (-2.7% vs. -1.8% Bloomberg consensus, q/q AR), while unit labor costs surprises on the upside (+6.3% vs. +5.5% consensus, 3.3% previous).
Thirty Year Mortgage-Treasury Spread
From FRED, a maturity matched spread (as well as 30 yr -10 yr Trsy).
ADP Private NFP Growth Upside Surprise
ADP private nonfarm surprises on upside, 296 vs 148 thousands. Using the first differences regression in this post to nowcast BLS private NFP, what does the picture look like?
Market on Debt Default Risk
Higher (a lot) than 2011.
Fed Funds Trajectory as Viewed by the Market
According to the CME, peak Fed funds will be achieved tomorrow. So… “25 and done”…