Industrial production is out, 0.4% m/m vs. 0.2% consensus.
Event: “Managing the U.S.-China Trade and Technology Conflict: Is There a Better Way?”
A CMU-UW Madison-Columbia U-Rand zoom event on “Managing the US-China Trade and Technology Conflict: Is There a Better Way?” (April 17th) with experts (some of whom are coauthors, colleagues, and friends of mine).
CPI Inflation in March: Downward, Month-on-Month
While year-on-year core rose, month-on-month fell, along with other measures of inflation that are aimed at getting the trend.
Guest Contribution: “In god we trust, all the others must bring (good) collateral”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Miklos Vari (Banque de France). The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.
More on Cost-Push Shocks and Inflation Expectations in a Phillips Curve Context
Gianluca Benigno notes that the NY Fed’s GSCPI, used in this post on using a naive expectations augmented Phillips curve to predict inflation, can be used independently to predict inflation, as in Akinci, et al. “How much can GSCPI improvement help reduce inflation” (Feb 2023).
How Well Do Adaptive Inflation Expectations Do, 1982-2023?
Answer: so-so.
Reader Erik Poole commenting on this figure (in this post) writes:
Assuming that the all the inflation forecasts are one-year forecasts in the above chart, do we have any kind of inflation expectations data for shorter time frames, such as 6 months?
The above is a fancy way of asking: are financial markets and professional forecastersb really that bad at forecasting inflation?
Glancing at the above chart, it appears to make a good argument for adaptive expectations driving economic agents inflation expectations.
How To Calculate the Upper Bound Estimate on After Tax Real Mortgage Rates
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Continue to Decline
As of today:
How Well Does a Naive Expectations Augmented Phillips Curve with Cost Push Shocks Fit PCE Inflation?
I asked this question of myself, as I prepared my lecture notes. As it turns out, not too badly, over the 1986-2022 period.
White House on Revising Guidance on “Regulatory Analysis”
Otherwise known as Circular A-4. dated April 6, 2023.