Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Weekly Economic Activity Measures thru 8/20
As measured by the Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI:
Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Implications of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision
Each year, the establishment series is benchmark-revised. The preliminary estimate for March was released yesterday. Short story – employment growth looks faster and stronger – up 462K relative to original 150856K (up by 0.3%).
One Year Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations [figure updated 8/26]
Down slightly, in August, for Michigan and Survey of Professional Forecasters.
GDP and Ten Year Yield Forecasts: Messages from the Survey of Professional Forecasters
A remarkable downgrade in expected growth shows up in a large implied negative — and widening — output gap, even as forecasted long yields rise, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (released 8/12).
The “…recession…of H1 2022”
Some people think we’re in a recession now, some think it’s in the past (we’re currently in H2 2022). In fact some economists surveyed by NABE believe we’re in a recession now (as shown in the chart below). Here’re some reminders of our best estimates of the current macro situation we’re in.
Taiwan Strait Balance of Forces
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of July?
CFNAI edition – from Chicago Fed today:
Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in July
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was +0.27 in July, up from –0.25 in June.
CEPR: “Macroeconomic Policies for Wartime Ukraine”
An e-book with contributions by Torbjörn Becker, Barry Eichengreen, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Sergei Guriev, Simon Johnson, Tymofiy Mylovanov, Maurice Obstfeld, Kenneth Rogoff, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro.
Military Conflict and Economic Warfare, China-Taiwan
Some commentators have worried about imminent military hostilities between China and Taiwan (and hence the United States, almost assuredly). Here’s some reasons to think it’s not quite happening yet — at least the military part. The economic aspects — we’ll have to wait and see.