A couple years ago, Ryan LeCloux and I were cataloging the ways in which to track the individual state economies, at higher than annual frequency (paper here). I think that topic will be of interest again. State employment figures for April will come out on the 22nd, Philadelphia Fed coincident indices on the 27th.
For now, consider the evolution of the coincident indices going from February to March.
With industrial production for April released, we have a clearer picture of economic activity in that month. Here are some indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (4/28 release), and author’s calculations.
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School and International Institute of Forecasters) and Capucine Nobletz (University Paris Nanterre).
From the Wall Street Journal’s May survey:
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From an open letter to Mr. Trump:
A Buy America directive can also hamstring the ability of U.S. pharmaceutical and medical equipment manufacturers to meet our future needs if firms are denied access to essential foreign supplies. Moreover, we can expect our trading partners to adopt retaliatory “Don’t Buy American” barriers targeting U.S. exports as this type of retaliation is already occurring between other countries.
I was wondering about this question as I followed the discussion of how to categorize recoveries. I was reminded by crampell to check the WSJ survey (which requires me to somehow circumnaviate the paywall), and this is what I found.
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Marcelo Bianconi (Tufts), Federico Esposito (Tufts), and Marco Sammon (Northwestern).
Reader Steven Kopits disputes the idea that the US per capita fatality rates can approach those of Italy:
Reporting for the day May 8, the US had the 5th highest death rate (for this day alone, not cumulatively), at 6.8 per million. Interestingly, Sweden was No. 2 at 9.7 per million.
Here’s the top fifteen in order (worst at top) of 84 countries reporting deaths today:
These two individuals have written an extraordinary document entitled “When and Where Will the Recovery Occur? A National and State by State Analysis of the Economic Response to the Coronavirus”. It is the pinnacle of economic hackery.
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Enrique Martínez-García (Senior Reserach Economist and Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas). The views expressed here are those solely of the author and do not reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.