I’m talking Stephen Moore. From CNN Business (1/24):
Continue readingGuest Contribution: “Successes and failures of the euro’s first 20 years”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on January 26th.
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Diverting Recovery Funds from Puerto Rico to Finance “the Wall”
In the likely event that Mexico does not provide the funds to build “a beautiful big wall” on our southern border, will Mr. Trump declare a national emergency and redirect funds? Mr. Trump has mentioned diverting monies from Puerto Rico recovery.
Continue readingGuest Contribution: “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Recession Probability”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
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Guest Contribution: “On the euro’s 20th birthday, Draghi’s tribute perpetuates long-refuted myths”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Ashoka Mody, Charles and Marie Visiting Professor in International Economic Policy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University. Previously, he was Deputy Director in the International Monetary Fund’s Research and European Departments.
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Term Spreads and Policy Uncertainty in Perspective
The combination of yield curve inversion and high uncertainty is the exception, rather than the rule.
Continue readingSo Tired of Winning: US-China Trade Edition
Classes are about to start, so time to assemble slides on the trade outlook. I put together this graph of US goods exports to and imports from China (would’ve been through November, but for the Federal government shutdown – Jan 8 was release date). Please help me see the victory Mr. Trump keeps on talking about.
Continue readingGuest Contribution: “All you need to know about the drivers of capital flows”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Swarnali Ahmed Hannan, economist at the IMF. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.
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“Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective”
Recession Indicators Reported as of 1/19/2019
I focus on the series highlighted by the NBER’s business cycle dating committee (BCDC).
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