Almost exactly 12 years ago, I noted the decline in equipment and software investment and the contemporaneous plateauing of capital goods imports, and repeated my worries in mid-June. At the time, I didn’t dare suggest an impending recession. Jim Hamilton (in July) warns “All of which is a reminder that the latest GDP numbers do not prove that we’re out of the woods yet” as the recession probability indicator rises to 26.2%.
U.S. economy keeps growing
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the first quarter of 2019. That’s better than the 2.2% average rate since the recovery from the Great Recession began in 2009:Q3, and even a little better than the average 3.1% growth over the last 70 years.
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Ramesh Ponnuru on the Conduct of Optimal Monetary Policy
I agree with
@realDonaldTrump: We need to keep interest rates low now to keep our economy growing.
Who’s Getting the Rents?
The import quota rents that is. From Brian Riley/NTUF:
Thoughts on the Next Recession
CEA Chair Kevin Hassett has stated a recession by next summer is impossible. I’m wary of such definitive statements.
CEA Chair Hassett: US recession ‘impossible’ by summer next year
That title from an article in FoxBusiness.
New Estimates of Excess Mortality on Puerto Rico
It’s easy to forget that thousands of American died in the wake of Hurricane Maria, and more are set to die as the administration opposes further assistance to the Commonwealth. Yet, new estimates confirm earlier estimates, and give detail on the causes.
Proceedings Online: “Integration or Disintegration? The Future of Global Governance and the Global Economy”
The La Follette School Spring Symposium (April 3) is now online, showing insights from Dani Rodrik, Mary Lovely, Phillip Levy, Ian Coxhead, Lisa Martin, Krzysztof Pelc and Stephanie Rickard.
Panel 1: Trade and Globalization
Panel 2: Cooperation and Institutions
A Gold Standard Exchange Rate Regime for the 21st Century
The quasi-nomination of Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Federal Reserve Board has resurrected the issue of the gold standard. Jim Hamilton has repeatedly — and convincingly — critiqued the idea of a return to the classical gold standard, here, here, here, and here. But here I talk about what a gold standard for the 21st century would entail.
Who’s Supporting Moore for Fed? Institutional Affiliations of Signatories
Yesterday, I posted some observations on the signatories to the letter supporting Stephen Moore for the Fed letter posted [PDF]. Here for the sake of completeness is the list of the affiliations the signatories provided.