Equipment Investment, Capital Goods Imports, and the Impending Slowdown

Almost exactly 12 years ago, I noted the decline in equipment and software investment and the contemporaneous plateauing of capital goods imports, and repeated my worries in mid-June. At the time, I didn’t dare suggest an impending recession. Jim Hamilton (in July) warns “All of which is a reminder that the latest GDP numbers do not prove that we’re out of the woods yet” as the recession probability indicator rises to 26.2%.

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