For soybeans, among other things.
Source: Bloomberg. Notes: 300-foot plastic bags sit filled with soybeans and corn. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
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Which Observation Is Not Like the Others: US Inward FDI Again
Plotting nominal dollar value of inward FDI understates the collapse in inflows. Here is the ratio to GDP, and — considering how FDI covaries with the stock market’s level — the real S&P 500 (As I recall, working on this topic during the dot.com boom, the dollar’s strength was the other important factor — but that hasn’t changed much over the last three years.)
Inward US Bound FDI
There’s been a drastic fall-off in inbound FDI.
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Origins and Challenges of a Strong Dollar
That’s the title of an op-ed appearing in Nikkei newspaper (日本経済新聞):
Out of Sample Regression Prediction of Mass Shooting Fatalities
Does a Trump dummy “work”? Reader sam writes:
i think you’re putting too much weight into too few observations.
Some things to make your analysis more convincing 1) show the if predictive accuracy increased with a trump dummy OUT OF SAMPLE or 2) try placing the ‘trump dummy’ variable a few months before or a few months after and see if that changes the coefs. i doubt you’ll see much of an effect.
Three Graphs and a Regression Equation
And we are less than one-third of the way through November.
Arkansas and Missouri Minimum Wage Increases Contextualized
Arkansas and Missouri voted to raise minimum wages. Time to worry? Here’s a graphical depiction of CPI-deflated minimum wage up to September, and into 2021.
“Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies”
That’s the title of a new volume released today, edited by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge.
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Why Kobach Lost
This graph of Kansas employment during the Brownback years is suggestive.
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Time Series Evidence on the Minimum Wage Impact in Minnesota vs. Wisconsin
- Is the partial derivative of fast food employment with respect to the minimum wage negative? Maybe, maybe not.
- Does a higher minimum wage decrease young adult employment? Maybe, maybe not.
- Does a higher minimum wage raise fast food restaurant prices? Not noticeably.
These conclusions (reported in this working paper written by Louis Johnston and me) stand in contrast to those obtained by Noah Williams, and reported in this CROWE Policy Brief.