Some observers claimed the fungibility of soybeans would mean little impact on US soybean prices. Unless the Bloomberg terminals are being hacked by the Russians…
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Wisconsin, Tradables, and the Impending Trade War
I was wondering how Wisconsin, a steel using (not producing), manufacturing and export dependent state was faring as tariffs and retaliation loomed.
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A Clear and Present Danger: The Imminent Cheese Gap
First, it was the mineshaft gap. Now, it’s the Cheese Gap. And a dairy trade war is the perfect way to approach the impending threat.
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The Trade Policy Annotated Yield Curve
Down, down, down. 10yr-3mo at 0.86% at 2pm today. See Jim’s post for more on the spread.
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Worries about the yield curve
Several people have asked me if the flattening yield curve is a warning of impending weak growth or even a recession. My answer is not yet. Here’s why.
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How Will Soybean Prices Be Faring in Six Months?
First, look at futures as of today (with the decline looking unabated):
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Homosocial Reproduction and Economic Policy Formulation in the White House
Word is that Stephen Moore is in the mix for NEC staff. I think he would fit in perfectly in the Trump White House (hence the reference to Rosabeth Moss Kantor’s concept of “homosocial reproduction”). After all, NEC Chair Kudlow just said the budget deficit is shrinking. Now, consider these instances of Mr. Moore’s sheer mendacity (or, I admit, it could be statistical incompetence):
Is California in Recession (Part VII)
Back in mid-December, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release of May state-level employment and coincident index figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred.
First, the coincident indicators for California and US:
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Wisconsin Employment: Already in the Doldrums, Pre-Harley-Davidson
With some tariff induced offshoring of Harley-Davidson, now is perhaps a good time to consider the repercussions of the current administration trade policy on Wisconsin — a steel using (not producing) state, with some cheese and soybean production…
Term of the Day: Effective Rate of Protection
Or, when 10% is not just 10%. (Wisconsin/Harley-Davidson edition)