Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Term Spreads for Country Groupings
US, Rest-of-Advanced, Emerging Markets, follow up on individual countries’ term spreads in yesterday’s post.
Further Thoughts on the Labor Market Collapse of 2022H1 (aka the Kopits Thesis)
Mr. Steven Kopits asserted that the Philadelphia Fed’s early preliminary benchmark supported a recession in 2022H1, to wit:
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-June
With industrial production coming in, we have the following picture of some key business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC. Also included is GDPNow as of today.
Term Spread Inversion and Non-Inversions
The 10yr-3mo term spread is remarkably synchronized for some large advanced economies.
US-Euro Area Price Level and Inflation Differentials: I(0), I(1), Segmented Trends?
Do you calculate inflation differentials using … inflation or price levels? Follow up on this debate from a bit over a year ago.
The Labor Market – Bargaining Power, Wages, Inflation
From WPR yesterday, UW Madison experts:
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
The world economy still “in a precarious state”. The comprehensive analysis, written by the team headed by Ayhan Kose, is here.
May 2023 Inflation: Various Measures, Horizons
Headline m/m +0.1% vs. +0.2% Bloomberg consensus, core at +0.4% at consensus. Here are several measures on a month to month basis (annualized).
FT-Booth School June Survey of Macroeconomists: Recession Start in 2024
2023 q4/q4 growth relatively unchanged. Modal guess for recession start date moved to 2024Q1-Q2 (survey results here; FT article).