Numbers released today for 2021Q4.
The Recovery in Wisconsin
Output is still below peak levels.
ADP Downside Surprise
Private nonfarm payrolls down 301K vs. +207K consensus (Bloomberg). Still, don’t over-read.
Business Cycle Indicators at the Start of February
IHS-Markit’s monthly GDP is out, with a 0.1% m/m increase in December. Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
The Asset Side of the Fed’s Balance Sheet, and Credit Easing to Date
You can always see a nice graphic showing the broad breakdown of Fed asset holdings at the Cleveland Fed’s website:
Guest Contribution: “Inflation, Fed policy and emerging markets”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
Bitcoin and Different Types of Uncertainty/Risk
What matters (as we ponder Russian actions in Ukraine (e.g., invasion). Will elevated geopolitical risk matter, and if so, how much?
Correlations (II)
Guest Contribution: “Vaccination Mandates Are Not Government Over-reach”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
GDP almost back to potential
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, more than twice the average growth rate the U.S. has seen since World War II.
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