Today we present a guest post written by Matías Scaglione and Romina Soria, co-founders of the data science and economic consulting firm Motio Research.
Why Do Prediction Markets Differ in Pricing the Election?
RealClearPolitics betting average, today, has Harris-Trump 52.3 to 46.3.
Bull Steepening since FOMC Meeting
Here’s the cumulative change since 6/3/2024:
“Newly released data from the Commerce Department show what some people have been saying for months: The nation is in recession.”
That’s EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation, writing in September 2022. A cautionary note on declaring recessions.
Nowcasts Rising
Here’s a snapshot of nowcasts and forecasts as of today:
State Employment Report for August
Unemployment rises in many states, but so does employment (NFP) growth (report).
Nowcasting Wisconsin NFP Employment
Can we use national employment to nowcast Wisconsin employment? This endeavor is somewhat complicated by the pandemic. With DWD’s release today, we can evaluate the fit of the model.
Is Manufacturing In Recession?
As of August, incorporating latest capacity utilization and production data, I’m tempted to say no, even incorporating at face value the preliminary benchmark revision to employment.
Where Will Mortgage Rates Go?
Ad hoc time series analysis.
Change in Fed Funds vs. Where the Fed Funds Should Be
At the press conference for today’s FOMC meeting, there was a lot of talk about how the 50bps drop was dramatic. That focused on the change, rather than the level…Consider what some measures of the Taylor rule (which refers to the level of the Fed funds rate) indicate.