Bruce Hall writes:
…the oil “shortage” crises in the U.S. was pretty much a political phenomenon of the West supporting Israel during the 1967 war (which party was in power then?) and being boycotted by the Arab countries.
Individual 1 Provides More Event Study Data
Here is a time series of PredictIt’s odds for a government closure per OMB at noon, 24 December 2018. Red line at WH meeting.
Jeffrey Frankel: “Gopinath follows Obstfeld at the IMF, in a great tradition”
Maury Obstfeld this month completes his exemplary term as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund. His departing economic outlook foresees slowing growth in the world economy in 2019 and 2020.
Is California in Recession? (Part X)
Back nearly a year ago, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release of the 2018Q2 state GDP figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred.
Perspective on the stock market
Some people are getting a little spooked by recent stock market movements. Here I offer a few thoughts.
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Wisconsin GDP ex-Madison ex-Milwaukee
Robin Vos has suggested Wisconsin would be much more Republican (hence “better”) without Madison and Milwaukee. I wondered what an ex-Madison and ex-Milwaukee Wisconsin economic output would look like. Here’s the picture.
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The 1990-91 Recession
The NBER BCDC memo and the data.
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14 Months, 8 Months, 16 Months
That’s the amount of time between 10 year-3 month yield curve inversions and the beginning of the subsequent NBER-dated recession (these are the three recessions in the Great Moderation period). This is shown in Figure 1.
Up, Up and Away
Economic Policy Uncertainty, 5 December 2018:
Scott Walker’s Parting Gift to Wisconsin
A shrinking economy.