This headline “US Recession Imminent – Durable Goods Drop For 5th Month, Core CapEx Collapses”, following on “Forget Recession: According To Caterpillar There Is A Full-Blown Global Depression”, impelled me to check to see if I’d missed something.
Who Am I to Disagree?
Updated 8/3:
From WaPo:
“Wisconsin’s doing terribly. It’s in turmoil. The roads are a disaster because they don’t have any money to rebuild them. They’re borrowing money like crazy. They projected a $1 billion surplus, and it turns out to be a deficit of $2.2 billion. The schools are a disaster. The hospitals and education was a disaster. And he was totally in favor of Common Core, which I hate!”
Measuring unemployment
New claims for unemployment insurance this week came in at the lowest level in over 40 years. How much slack can there be left in the labor market?
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Guest Contribution: “Time to Re-estimate the U.S. Output Gap: Have the Scars from the Crisis Healed?”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Ali Alichi, senior economist at the International Monetary Fund. The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its management, nor its Executive Board.
A Brief Note on Yuan Exchange Rate Pass-through to US Imports from China
In today’s WSJ, Justin Lahart notes “China Wind Chills U.S. Earnings”, and presents an interesting graph of import prices, which inspired me to look more closely at the issue.
Guest Contribution: ‘Only Tsipras Can “Go to China”’
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. An earlier version was published in Project Syndicate.
Messages from the June State Employment Release
According to today’s release, employment and hours downturns in Wisconsin and Kansas continue. The Wisconsin economic downturn continues along several other dimensions (with the labor force now declining).
“Spillovers of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: the role of real and financial linkages”
That’s the topic of a conference sponsored and hosted by the Swiss National Bank and co-sponsored with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Dallas Fed, the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), and the Journal of International Money and Finance.
Firm-specific factors in rising income inequality
I spent the last two weeks in Boston at the NBER Summer Institute where I learned about a lot of interesting new economic research. Here I describe a new paper by Jae Song, David Price, Fatih Guvenen, Nicholas Bloom, and Till von Wachter on the role of firm-specific factors in rising income inequality.
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Revised Philadelphia Fed Indices
The Philadelphia Fed yesterday posted the results of a revision of both coincident and leading indices, as explained here. The resulting plot for California, Kansas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and the US is shown below.