EJ Antoni (Heritage) is dubious about GDPNow’s (and other nowcasts) regarding Q3 growth. From X aka Twitter today:
Big Mac Nation in Recession?
Actually, no — but perhaps a fast food nation in recession. In arguing that output is mismeasured, so much so we’ve been in recession for the past four years, Peter St. Onge (Heritage) and Jeffrey Tucker (Brownstone Institute) write:
Various studies have shown that since 2019 fast food prices — a gold standard in financial markets for measuring true inflation — have outpaced official CPI by between 25% and 50%.
More on the Preliminary Benchmark in Context
Recall the preliminary benchmark deducted 818K from the March NFP reading.
Instantaneous Core PCE at 2.2%
M/M Core PCE inflation at consensus.
Business Cycle Indicators as of August’s End
July nominal consumption growth at consensus (+0.5%). Month-on-Month annualized real consumption growth at 4.5%, with June revised up from 2.6% to 3.2%. Moreover, annualized personal income ex-transfers grew 1.9% in July. Here is a snapshot of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
“we never left the recession of March 2020 and … everything has been getting gradually worse”
I subtitle this post “The Shadow of ShadowStats” which is now offline and available only by subscription. Referring to under-estimated inflation, Peter St. Onge (Heritage) and Jeffrey Tucker (Brownstone Institute) argued in June that not only are we now in a recession, we’ve been in recession for the past four years!
GDP 2nd Release for Q2
Revised up 0.2 ppts, 0.2 ppts above consensus. Final sales up 0.2 ppts. GDO rises 2.1% q/q SAAR.
Brad Setser on China’s True Trade Balance
Brad Setser has been diligently cross-checking the external accounts of China. For purposes of thinking about how policymakers are trying to snatch aggregate demand across borders, the trade balance is key.
EJ Antoni on the Current Recession
Economic Sentiment and Confidence in August
Conference Board’s Confidence Index exceeds consensus (103.3 > 100.9), with July index revised up. Here’re August readings for confidence, sentiment and news.